Numbers Game

OP/ED

Forest Minister Timothy Bonga labeled Abau MP and former Deputy Prime Minister Sir Puka Temu as a hypocrite. The senior National Alliance Minister described Sir Puka as a leader who is hungry for power. Mr Bonga remarks came after we reported that Sir Puka nominated Mr Don Pomb Polye to be the alternate Prime Minister, if the proposed vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare was to be entertained by the Acting Speaker when Parliament meets on January 11.

Name calling and other tactics of these sorts has started and these are expected to continue in the next few days as the date set for the recall of Parliament draws near. This is nothing new, every time, when we face a vote of no-confidence, MPs and political parties do that.

What matters most in this political game is the numbers. The Opposition currently boasts of 22 MPs on the floor of Parliament. This is not enough for it needs a minimum 55 MPs to successfully move the vote of no-confidence in the Government.

It will require the support of the MPs in the Government. The government maintains that it is intact. On Wednesday, the leaders of the coalition parties took a boat cruise with the Acting Prime Minister Sam Abal on the Port Moresby Harbour to show its solidarity. On the trip, there was Enga Governor Peter Ipatas, the leader of Peoples Party, Peter O’Neill, leader of the Peoples National Congress, Gabriel Kapris, leader of Peoples Action Party, Peoples Democratic Movement, Michael Ogio, Moses Maladina, Rural development Party. Absent on that boat ride were William Duma, United Resource Party, Bob Dadae, United Party, Joe Mek Teine, PNG National Party, Dame Carol Kidu, Melanesian Alliance and Andrew Kumbakor of Pangu. All of these coalition parties contribute 33 MPs to the government and one party of great interest is the URP, the second biggest group in government. URP has nine MPs, and the party is divided, with Mr Duma heading one group with the support of six of the MPs while Andersen Agiru has three MPs with him.

These minor political parties have joined forces with the National Alliance Party with 40 MPs to form Government. The NA is made up of four groups, the mamose bloc with 10 MPs, highlands with 13 MPs, southern with 12 MPs and islands with five MPs. Ano Pala heads the southern bloc, Don Polye heads the highlands bloc, Patrick Pruaitch heads the mamose bloc and Fidelis Semeso heads the islands bloc.

Papua New Guineans were told this week that NA, the biggest party in government and the Parliament is in serious trouble. Acting PM Sam Abal admitted that cracks and divisions are appearing in the party, for the first time since the 2002 national elections. In the highlands bloc, the dumping of Mr Polye from the Deputy PM post did not go down well with the highlands NA MPs.

Today Mr Abal is on his own. In mamose, Mr Patrick Pruaitch is on suspension and he will not be in Parliament, Mr Ano Pala and Mr Mark Mapakai are squabbling over the leadership of the party in the southern bloc, while in the islands, a party strongman, Paul Tiensten was replaced, and we are told that he is forming a new political party.

The Opposition is moving ahead with its plan to move a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister. Sir Puka Temu, a former NA man who moved to the Opposition in June last year, has nominated Mr Polye, the man demoted by the Prime Minister from the DPM post and who is leader of the biggest group in the NA party, as the alternate Prime Minister, driving a wedge through NA. Polye is a seasoned MP, he is charismatic and an intelligent man, who has matured under the guidance of Sir Michael.

Given these numbers, the Government will survive if one or two of the coalition partners desert NA. The fate, then, of the Government is in the hands of the NA leaders.

Will Mr Polye accept the nomination? And if he does, will he get the support from his fellow NA members. He already has the support of the NA Highlands MPs, except for Mr Abal. Papua New Guinea will know in the next few days.