The Finance Minister's numbers cut both ways

by MICHAEL PASSINGAN

Finance Minister Thomas Opa brought the only hard numbers to Friday's Bougainville debate, and he deserves credit for it. Drawing on the Department of Finance's integrated financial management system, he told the House that national government spending recorded through the Autonomous Bougainville Government vote came to more than K2.5 billion between 2019 and 2025. Annual spending rose from K159.4 million in 2019 to K452.8 million in 2025. Some K1.36 billion went on salaries for public servants and teachers, and K553.7 million on restoration and development grants.

Then came the figure he clearly meant to be decisive. The ABG's 2026 budget is about K844 million, of which it expects to raise K46.8 million itself: 5.5 per cent. In 2019, its own revenue covered 12.2 per cent of its budget. Research cited in his department's report puts the annual cost of an independent Bougainville at between K1.7 billion and K2.5 billion. How, he asked, can a government raising under K50 million a year finance statehood?

It is a fair question, and he asked it fairly. He conceded that financial self-reliance cannot be the sole test of independence and that many states begin their lives poor. He acknowledged shortfalls in the restoration and development grant in 2019 and 2020, said only about 92 per cent of the 2025 appropriation was paid, and admitted that historical arrears remain disputed. He called for an independent, transparent reconciliation. That is more candour about Bougainville's money than Waigani usually offers.

But the numbers cut both ways. Bougainville's own-revenue share more than halved between 2019 and 2026. That happened under autonomy arrangements the two governments run together, while the national government was underpaying a grant the peace agreement guarantees. A shrinking revenue base is evidence about the autonomy period, not only about Bougainville. If seven years of autonomy produced 5.5 per cent self-funding, that is partly a verdict on the support, the transfer of powers and the economic help the State provided.

There is an inconsistency inside the speech, too. The minister told the House the Marape-Rosso Government had continuously fulfilled its commitments from 2021 to 2025. Moments later he said the 2025 grant was paid at about 92 per cent, and that disputes over arrears are unresolved. Both cannot be the whole truth.

Now set his figures against the Government's own test. In June, the Prime Minister set out Pangu's 15-year transition proposal, conditional on Bougainville generating enough revenue to fund at least 70 per cent of its annual budget over a five-year period. On the Finance Minister's numbers, Bougainville funds 5.5 per cent. That gap is not a hurdle; it is a wall. Make 70 per cent the price of independence and the answer is no, without anyone in the chamber having to vote no.

Apply the same test to the nation and it looks harsher still. Few members would argue that Papua New Guinea should forfeit its sovereignty because it borrows to fund its budget, relies on donors for big programmes and carries arrears to its own suppliers and pension funds. PNG itself became independent in 1975 with heavy Australian budget support. Viability matters. It has not been the test of nationhood before.

The minister's own principles point to the honest path. Commission the independent assessment of Bougainville's revenue, costs and economic prospects he called for. Complete the reconciliation of what Waigani owes. Protect teachers, nurses and public servants through any transition. Do all three, and publish them, before the vote rather than after it. If the numbers are going to decide Bougainville's future, Parliament should see the whole ledger, including Waigani's side of it.